What happened
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius reports AI investment contributed "basically zero" to US GDP growth in 2025, despite billions spent by tech companies like Meta, Amazon, Google, and OpenAI. This contradicts earlier estimates from Harvard economics professor Jason Furman and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which cited significant AI-related contributions. Hatzius attributes the minimal impact to imported equipment, such as chips and hardware, which primarily boosts the GDP of manufacturing nations like Taiwan and Korea. Additionally, reliable methods to measure AI's productivity impact on businesses and consumers remain absent.
Why it matters
AI investment's economic benefits are not accruing domestically, shifting the focus for investors and procurement teams from raw spending to supply chain origins. The "basically zero" US GDP contribution in 2025, despite $700 billion projected for 2026 data centre spending, highlights that capital outflow for imported components directly reduces national economic impact. This challenges narratives of immediate, broad-based domestic economic uplift, prompting founders to scrutinise the true economic footprint of their infrastructure choices. This follows previous reports of US data proving AI productivity, which now face re-evaluation.
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