Your AI coding bill is subsidised, and the caps are starting
Independent analysis published this week estimated that Anthropic and OpenAI may spend more than $1,000 in compute for every $100 users pay for intensive agentic coding, the first independent per-user estimate Pulse24 has logged. Source
The second-order effect is already visible. Walmart and Uber have begun capping employee access to AI tools and reviewing budgets, shifting from broad rollout to metered use. Source
This matters because the subscription prices builders plan around are being set below provider cost, so today's per-seat economics cannot be assumed to hold through the next budget cycle.
Heavy subsidies can persist for years as a land-grab, as cloud and ride-hailing both showed, and falling inference costs could close the gap through efficiency rather than price rises.
CTOs, platform engineers, and procurement leads who budget for AI-assisted development.
If you run engineering or procurement, measure your actual compute spend per developer now and price an open-weight fallback into your plan before renewal, so a price change is an inconvenience, not a fire drill.
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