What happened
AI is repricing services businesses, challenging India's $224 billion IT export sector, which employs 5.4 million people. AI copilots deliver double-digit efficiency gains, reducing human hours in contracts. This shift led to the Nifty IT index falling over 20%, wiping out ₹7.7 lakh crore in market value across Indian IT firms. Capital is now flowing towards advanced semiconductors, large-scale computing infrastructure, and foundational AI models, away from effort-based services.
Why it matters
Margin compression threatens the growth trajectory of Indian IT services, impacting urban economies and credit markets. AI's ability to reduce engineer-hours weakens the traditional growth model, shifting value capture to firms controlling advanced semiconductors, cloud platforms, and foundational AI models. Procurement teams will face higher costs for core AI capabilities. Indian firms must transition from effort-based to outcome-based pricing, invest in proprietary AI solutions, and develop domestic AI stack control to avoid structural over-dependence.
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