What happened
Citrini Research's "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" report outlines a hypothetical scenario where rapid AI automation causes widespread job losses and financial turmoil by 2028. The report flags Indian IT majors like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro as vulnerable, projecting their traditional business models could face severe disruption. It claims India's $200 billion annual IT services exports could slow dramatically as clients shift to AI coding agents with marginal costs equivalent to electricity, potentially causing an 18% rupee depreciation and IMF involvement by Q1 2028.
Why it matters
Access to low-cost AI coding agents threatens the unit economics of traditional IT services, directly impacting procurement teams and investors in outsourcing firms. The report projects an 18% rupee depreciation and IMF intervention by Q1 2028, indicating significant sovereign risk for economies reliant on service exports. This scenario highlights the pressure on IT service providers to adapt their models, as evidenced by TCS prioritising AI fluency for its employees.
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