What happened
Artificial intelligence has not delivered a significant macroeconomic productivity boom. The US economy grew 2.2% in 2025, with 0.1% employment growth, yet estimated productivity growth reached only 1.9%, below the long-run average. Much of 2025's GDP growth stemmed from AI-related infrastructure investment; Jason Furman of Harvard University estimated 90% of H1 2025 growth from data centres. Generative AI usage rose to 41% of American workers by November 2025, but only 5.7% of total work hours involved it by mid-2025.
Why it matters
AI's impact on macroeconomic productivity remains limited, despite rising adoption and proven efficiency gains on individual tasks. Underlying productivity gains, excluding AI infrastructure investment, are near zero, per Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research. This indicates deploying AI tools does not automatically translate to systemic efficiency improvements. The pattern mirrors electric power adoption, where reorganisation around the technology, not just its use, drove significant gains. This contrasts with recent claims of AI proving productivity gains.
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