What happened
Major tech companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, are projected to increase AI-related capital expenditure from $344 billion this year to potentially $404 billion next year. This investment, primarily in data centres and infrastructure, is now a significant driver of US GDP growth, occurring amidst slowing labour market gains. The economy's reliance on this concentrated AI spending has intensified, with economists suggesting it currently prevents a recession. The focus remains on capital-intensive assets rather than labour-intensive industries.
Why it matters
The heightened economic dependency on concentrated AI capital expenditure introduces a significant systemic constraint, increasing exposure to macroeconomic volatility for procurement and financial planning teams. A reversal in AI investment or stock valuations could trigger a broader economic downturn, creating an accountability gap in long-term growth projections not tied to labour productivity gains. This raises due diligence requirements in assessing the stability of AI-driven market indicators and their direct operational impact.
